INTRODUCTION

For as long as I can remember, I love reading forecasts. Weather forecasts, stock forecasts, election forecasts, sports forecasts and, of course, real estate forecasts. I remember being a 10-year-old kid and spending my allowance on major league baseball predictions, and being a 12-year-old kid and religiously watching the 5:23 (pm) Channel 7 Harry Wappler weather forecast since he usually included explanations as to why he was forecasting what he was forecasting.

The problem with forecasts is that more often than not they’re wrong. As Mark Twain once said, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.” But that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in reading forecasts, because as it has also been said, “Being forewarned is being forearmed,” and forecasts usually include tidbits of information that we can personally consider while making the decisions that impact our lives (such as buying or selling a home).

With that in mind, I really enjoyed spending the past few weeks reading all the various 2026 real estate forecasts that were published by a variety of sources, including the respected National Association of Realtors (NAR) and Redfin predictions, local Seattle Time forecasts, and various other professional resources’ gazes into 2026. By reading these in detail, we can develop a consensus on what to expect, or at the very least have helpful insights for ourselves if we are considering buying a home or selling a home or just staying put. 

With that in mind, what follows is what the experts and analysts are expecting for the 2026 real estate market. Page 1 of this document is this introduction, page 2 is my summary of the consensus, page 3 is a point-by-point explanation and page 4 is a link to my various sources.

I work with Larissa Wilson, who has nearly 20 years as a top producing broker in the Seattle real estate world. We welcome any questions and comments about this material, and would also be honored if you consider us should you decide to engage a real estate agent in the upcoming 2026 year. Wishing you a Happy New Year and a terrific 2026.

Rob Mathison w/Larissa Wilson

THE CONSENSUS

For the most part, 2026 is being forecasted as a Goldilocks (“just right”) year. Not too hot, not too cold. Neither too much of a buyers’ market nor not too much of a sellers’ market. In short, it’s shaping up to be a good year to buy a home, sell a home, or even just staying put where you are. 

For this next year, home sales will go up a little bit, inventory will go up a little bit, house prices will go up a little bit and rents will go up a little bit. But (!) because interest rates will continue their slightly downward trajectory to the low 6% (occasionally dipping into the high-5% range) and because wage growth will outpace home price increases, the increased home prices will not spook potential buyers. Additionally, forecasters are predicting that potential buyers who are outside of their affordability range will adapt by pooling their resources with family members and roommates so that they too can purchase their first home. The result of all this will be more buyers in the market. Which is good for sellers.

Typically, more buyers in the market means house prices will climb and we’ll get into potentially outrageous bidding wars like the one in 2021 that saw 45 offers on a single home. Except analysts predict that because interest rates are still just-high enough and the job market is just-uncertain enough that just-enough buyers will stay on the sidelines to keep the home prices in line. 

Additionally, home sellers are in a good place: they will have untapped equity in their home, they most likely have interest rates on their existing mortgage that they won’t be too quick to leave behind, and in general they have good credit. In other words, they aren’t desperate to sell. Their houses may sit on the market a little longer, and they may have to agree to pay for more repairs, but they aren’t going to sell their home for a bargain basement price.

Again, all of this adds up to a Goldilocks year, where it’s a good year to buy a home, a good year to sell a home, but neither group is going to have too much power at the other’s expense. That’s a good thing. Balance is a good thing.

That is my take on what 2026 real estate market has in store for us based on the analyst forecasts. But please feel free to develop your own take: below are links to the articles where various analysts share their forecasts. 

Thank you so much for reading this. I would love to hear from you at 206.683.2187 or rob@plotsandplats.com. You can also reach Larissa Wilson at 206.409.5962.

POINT BY POINT

MORTGAGE RATES 

The unanimous consensus is that mortgage rates will continue their slow downward trajectory, hovering in the low 6% range with occasional and unpredictable dips into the high-5% range. 

HOME SALES 

Forecasters all agree that home sales will increase this year (after a slight decline in 2025) but are all over the map about just how much. Estimates range from a modest 1% year over year to strong 14% growth. The Seattle Times predicts 4.7% year over year growth in the Seattle area with an especially strong spring; the National Association of Realtors also predicts a robust spring as both buyers and sellers who spent 2025 in the wings are drawn into the market by improved interest rates from a year ago.

HOME PRICES

Home prices for the most part are predicted to increase modestly. The Seattle Times and Windermere predict mostly flat home prices, Zillow and Redfin predict increases in the low 1% range, and the National Association of Realtors predicts a 3% to 5% hike. 

INVENTORY

Inventory is almost universally expected to increase, not because of a surge of sellers or a shortage of buyers but because homes will sit on the market a little longer. Sellers aren’t going to be willing to sell their homes for big discounts, and buyers won’t be willing to buy homes for more than market value, meaning that homes will sit a little longer on the market.

RECESSION RISK?

The US will avoid a recession in 2026, according to Windermere.

SOURCES

• SEATTLE TIMES: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/five-projections-for-seattles-real-estate-market-in-2026/
• NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS: https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/nar-2026-forecast-summit-predicts-positive-recovery-with-regional-affordability-hurdles
• YAHOO FINANCE: https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/housing-market-predictions-2026-165905235.html“
• WINDERMERE: https://www.windermere.com/blog/six-predictions-for-2026
• REDFIN: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-predictions-2026/
• SEATTLE AGENT: https://seattleagentmagazine.com/2025/12/12/jeff-tucker-local-look-november-25/?utm_source=emailoctopus&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=SEA%20TJI%20-%2012.18Hi.
• BLOOMBERG: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-12-18/real-estate-outlook-in-2026-what-buyers-renters-and-sellers-should-expect
• AI: https://share.google/aimode/SAq6kN4luIyIzVaOx