Case Study: A buyer loves a house that was listed this past week. But is the home overpriced?
A seller has a view home she believes is worth nearly 1.3m. Is that a fair price for our buyer? What does the data tell us?
SCENARIO
We have a buyer interested in a home on the market within the Seattle metro area*. The home is in a transitional neighborhood but is on a quiet street with terrific water views. But the buyer doesn’t want to overpay for the 1.225M home. Is the house priced fairly? What does the data say?
DATA**
The home was purchased in 2017 for 774,000 USD. The seller is now listing the same home (with no significant improvements) at 1,225,000 USD – a 58% markup since 2017. Looking at the “Sold” homes data in the MLS for that neighborhood dating back to 2017, homes in that neighborhood have risen by 27% (on average) since 2017, which means a 58% mark-up is more than twice the average for that neighborhood. That seems high. Additionally, the neighborhood itself has been undergoing price corrections the past few years: since a Covid-induced spike and then a 2024 rebound the neighborhood’s house values have dropped four out of the last six years, including the past 18 months (this isn’t true of all Seattle neighborhoods, but is true for this particular one). So the seller of this house is probably asking for more than the house is actually worth based the actual market.
PLAN
So our plan is to negotiate. See if we can get the seller to come down while also continuing to look for other similar homes that are maybe better priced. If the seller won’t negotiate (and they might not since it’s a fairly new listing), then we’ll just have to wait and see if they’ll eventually come down in price (recently a home (still on the market) in that area reduced its listing price by $127,000, so it’s possible that sellers in that area are getting the message).
THE RESULT
This is based on Saturday May 3, 2026. I’ll post more as the listing and the buyer’s story unfold.
Anyway, this was a reminder that when all else fails, and when a buyer or seller is willing to wait for the right price (i.e. money is an object), it never hurts to turn to the data. In this case, we learned that the house is listed for more than it’s probably worth.
Are you an agent or a buyer (or seller) who wants specific data within the greater Seattle area? Reach out to me at RobMathison@BHHSNW.com.
NOTES
(*) Exact location withheld to protect the innocent ☺
(**) Based on NWMLS “sold” data from 1/1/2017 in this particular Seatte subdivision.
Please note there are a LOT of factors that go into prices. This is a broad average based on homes sold.
Leave a Reply